Ladder Capital Corp logo LADR - Ladder Capital Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.25
LOW: $10.25
MEDIAN: $10.25
CONSENSUS: $10.25
UPSIDE: 4.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 30.5% below fair value
Current Price $9.81
Bear Case $11.76 19.9% upside ($11.76 - $9.81) / $9.81 = 19.9% $0.77 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $14.12 44.0% upside ($14.12 - $9.81) / $9.81 = 44.0% $0.77 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $16.48 68.0% upside ($16.48 - $9.81) / $9.81 = 68.0% $0.77 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
0.77$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.77) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.77 FFO/share with a 17x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $14.12 per share. Dividend yield: 9.4%. DDM cross-check: $16.60.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $10.25
Analyst Range $10.25 – $10.25
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 9.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.25 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify