Ladder Capital Corp logo LADR - Ladder Capital Corp

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.25
LOW: $10.25
MEDIAN: $10.25
CONSENSUS: $10.25
UPSIDE: 12.51%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.3% below fair value
Current Price $9.11
Bear Case $10.61 16.5% upside ($10.61 - $9.11) / $9.11 = 16.5% $0.76 FFO × 14x
Fair Value $12.89 41.5% upside ($12.89 - $9.11) / $9.11 = 41.5% $0.76 FFO × 17x
Bull Case $15.16 66.4% upside ($15.16 - $9.11) / $9.11 = 66.4% $0.76 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

17.0x
0.76$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($0.76) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 12.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $0.76 FFO/share with a 17x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $12.89 per share. Dividend yield: 10.1%. DDM cross-check: $14.59.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (17 analysts) $10.25
Analyst Range $10.25 – $10.25
Divergence from AlphaVal 26%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 10.1% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $10.25 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify