Loews Corporation logo L - Loews Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.7% below fair value
Current Price $114.59
Bear Case $85.84 25.1% downside ($85.84 - $114.59) / $114.59 = -25.1% ROTCE 7.2% → 1.02x TBV
Fair Value $150.16 31.0% upside ($150.16 - $114.59) / $114.59 = 31.0% ROTCE 9.6% → 1.78x TBV
Bull Case $188.75 64.7% upside ($188.75 - $114.59) / $114.59 = 64.7% ROTCE 11.0% → 2.24x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.78x on $84.32 tangible book, implying $150.16 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly