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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.6% below fair value
Current Price $109.30
Bear Case $87.52 19.9% downside ($87.52 - $109.30) / $109.30 = -19.9% ROTCE 7.2% → 1.04x TBV
Fair Value $153.10 40.1% upside ($153.10 - $109.30) / $109.30 = 40.1% ROTCE 9.6% → 1.82x TBV
Bull Case $192.44 76.1% upside ($192.44 - $109.30) / $109.30 = 76.1% ROTCE 11.0% → 2.28x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.3x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.82x on $84.32 tangible book, implying $153.10 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly