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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 28.0% below fair value
Current Price $111.72
Bear Case $88.73 20.6% downside ($88.73 - $111.72) / $111.72 = -20.6% ROTCE 7.2% → 1.05x TBV
Fair Value $155.21 38.9% upside ($155.21 - $111.72) / $111.72 = 38.9% ROTCE 9.6% → 1.83x TBV
Bull Case $195.10 74.6% upside ($195.10 - $111.72) / $111.72 = 74.6% ROTCE 11.0% → 2.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.6%
7.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.32x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 9.6% vs. 7.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.83x on $84.88 tangible book, implying $155.21 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly