Quaker Chemical Corporation logo KWR - Quaker Chemical Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $178.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $203.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $178.33
UPSIDE: 22.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 172.7% above fair value
Current Price $145.40
Bear Case $29.12 80.0% downside ($29.12 - $145.40) / $145.40 = -80.0% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $53.31 63.3% downside ($53.31 - $145.40) / $145.40 = -63.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $74.53 48.7% downside ($74.53 - $145.40) / $145.40 = -48.7% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 31%
Implied Market Multiple 40.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $178.33 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $53.31 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $178.33 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions