Quaker Chemical Corporation logo KWR - Quaker Chemical Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $176.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $203.00
LOW: $157.00
MEDIAN: $173.50
CONSENSUS: $176.75
UPSIDE: 19.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 179.6% above fair value
Current Price $148.17
Bear Case $28.96 80.5% downside ($28.96 - $148.17) / $148.17 = -80.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $52.99 64.2% downside ($52.99 - $148.17) / $148.17 = -64.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $74.11 50.0% downside ($74.11 - $148.17) / $148.17 = -50.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

5.9%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 31%
Implied Market Multiple 41.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 20.7% vs our 5.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $176.75 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $52.99 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $176.75 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 88% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions