Kuaishou Technology logo KUASF - Kuaishou Technology

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 0
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $3.70 DETAILS
HIGH: $3.70
LOW: $3.70
MEDIAN: $3.70
CONSENSUS: $3.70
UPSIDE: 1.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.1% below fair value
Current Price $3.64
Bear Case $8.89 144.2% upside ($8.89 - $3.64) / $3.64 = 144.2% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $11.77 223.3% upside ($11.77 - $3.64) / $3.64 = 223.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $14.62 301.8% upside ($14.62 - $3.64) / $3.64 = 301.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 5.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) -9.3% vs our 10.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $11.77 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1498 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions