AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag KTOS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for KTOS is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value KTOS?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from KTOS's most recent reported fundamentals.

KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $109.58 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 74.9% above fair value

Current Price $56.18

Bear Case $28.13 49.9% downside ($28.13 - $56.18) / $56.18 = -49.9% $0.19 × 18x + net cash

Fair Value $32.11 42.8% downside ($32.11 - $56.18) / $56.18 = -42.8% $0.19 × 22x + net cash

Bull Case $36.04 35.8% downside ($36.04 - $56.18) / $56.18 = -35.8% $0.19 × 26x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

0.19$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.19)

Implied Market Multiple 290.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $109.58 from 24 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $32.11 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 7.8x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $109.58 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing