AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. as a Cyclical & Capital-Intensive business and values it using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag KTOS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for KTOS comes from a Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Cyclical & Capital-Intensive classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value KTOS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. KTOS was classified as Cyclical & Capital-Intensive and is valued using Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple, built from KTOS's most recent reported fundamentals.

KTOS - Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $91.06 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 3433.2% above fair value

Current Price $40.42

Bear Case $0.94 97.7% downside ($0.94 - $40.42) / $40.42 = -97.7% $0.05 × 18x

Fair Value $1.14 97.2% downside ($1.14 - $40.42) / $40.42 = -97.2% $0.05 × 22x

Bull Case $1.35 96.7% downside ($1.35 - $40.42) / $40.42 = -96.7% $0.05 × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

22.0x

Normalized EPS

0.05$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($0.05)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 777.3x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $0.05 at a 22x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $1.14 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 5.6x.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $91.06

Analyst Range $68.00 – $135.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

⚠ Recent profits ($0.13/share) are 150% above the mid-cycle average ($0.05). Buying based on peak profits is the most common mistake with boom-and-bust businesses.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 5.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $91.06 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 99% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing