Kontoor Brands, Inc. logo KTB - Kontoor Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 10
HOLD 6
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $80.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $96.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $80.00
CONSENSUS: $80.33
DOWNSIDE: 8.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.4% below fair value
Current Price $88.06
Bear Case $164.38 86.7% upside ($164.38 - $88.06) / $88.06 = 86.7% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $297.96 238.4% upside ($297.96 - $88.06) / $88.06 = 238.4% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $459.25 421.5% upside ($459.25 - $88.06) / $88.06 = 421.5% 24% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 11.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.1% vs our 18.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $80.33 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $297.96 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $80.33 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 361% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions