Kura Sushi USA, Inc. logo KRUS - Kura Sushi USA, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $68.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $72.00
LOW: $65.00
MEDIAN: $68.50
CONSENSUS: $68.50
UPSIDE: 50.27%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 208.4% above fair value
Current Price $45.59
Bear Case $9.85 78.4% downside ($9.85 - $45.59) / $45.59 = -78.4% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $14.78 67.6% downside ($14.78 - $45.59) / $45.59 = -67.6% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $19.71 56.8% downside ($19.71 - $45.59) / $45.59 = -56.8% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 253.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $68.50 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $14.78 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $68.50 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case