Kura Sushi USA, Inc. logo KRUS - Kura Sushi USA, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $73.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $85.00
LOW: $62.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $73.40
UPSIDE: 35.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 244.4% above fair value
Current Price $54.28
Bear Case $10.51 80.6% downside ($10.51 - $54.28) / $54.28 = -80.6% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $15.76 71.0% downside ($15.76 - $54.28) / $54.28 = -71.0% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $21.01 61.3% downside ($21.01 - $54.28) / $54.28 = -61.3% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 301.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $73.40 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $15.76 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $73.40 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 98% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case