KRNY - Kearny Financial Corp.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$10.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$11.00
LOW:
$10.50
MEDIAN:
$10.75
CONSENSUS:
$10.75
UPSIDE:
18.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
5.6%
7.7%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.7%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.88x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 5.6% vs. 7.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.42x on $10.36 tangible book, implying $6.47 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$10.75
Analyst Range
$10.50 – $11.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
40%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.6%) is below the minimum investors require (7.7%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.75 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly