KRNY - Kearny Financial Corp.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$10.50
DETAILS
HIGH:
$10.50
LOW:
$10.50
MEDIAN:
$10.50
CONSENSUS:
$10.50
UPSIDE:
6.92%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
5.6%
7.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (5.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.95x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 5.6% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.43x on $10.36 tangible book, implying $6.47 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$10.50
Analyst Range
$10.50 – $10.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
38%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (5.6%) is below the minimum investors require (7.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.50 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly