Kite Realty Group Trust logo KRG - Kite Realty Group Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 15
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $30.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $31.00
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $30.50
CONSENSUS: $30.50
UPSIDE: 16.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.3% below fair value
Current Price $26.08
Bear Case $52.57 101.6% upside ($52.57 - $26.08) / $26.08 = 101.6% $3.37 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $65.71 152.0% upside ($65.71 - $26.08) / $26.08 = 152.0% $3.37 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $78.86 202.4% upside ($78.86 - $26.08) / $26.08 = 202.4% $3.37 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
3.37$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.37) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.37 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $65.71 per share. Dividend yield: 5.0%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $30.50
Analyst Range $30.00 – $31.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 115%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.0% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Wall Street's average price target is $30.50 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 115% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify