Kite Realty Group Trust logo KRG - Kite Realty Group Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $29.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $30.00
CONSENSUS: $29.67
UPSIDE: 1.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.7% below fair value
Current Price $29.31
Bear Case $44.85 53.0% upside ($44.85 - $29.31) / $29.31 = 53.0% $3.33 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $56.06 91.3% upside ($56.06 - $29.31) / $29.31 = 91.3% $3.33 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $67.27 129.5% upside ($67.27 - $29.31) / $29.31 = 129.5% $3.33 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
3.33$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.33) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $29.67 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $56.06 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $29.67 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 119% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify