Kite Realty Group Trust logo KRG - Kite Realty Group Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 11
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $28.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $30.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $29.00
CONSENSUS: $28.67
DOWNSIDE: 3.44%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 46.8% below fair value
Current Price $29.69
Bear Case $44.65 50.4% upside ($44.65 - $29.69) / $29.69 = 50.4% $3.33 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $55.81 88.0% upside ($55.81 - $29.69) / $29.69 = 88.0% $3.33 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $66.97 125.6% upside ($66.97 - $29.69) / $29.69 = 125.6% $3.33 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
3.33$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.33) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 8.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $28.67 from 26 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $55.81 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $28.67 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 126% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify