Kite Realty Group Trust logo KRG - Kite Realty Group Trust

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 10
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.75
UPSIDE: 8.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 62.6% below fair value
Current Price $24.68
Bear Case $52.86 114.2% upside ($52.86 - $24.68) / $24.68 = 114.2% $3.39 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $66.07 167.7% upside ($66.07 - $24.68) / $24.68 = 167.7% $3.39 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $79.28 221.2% upside ($79.28 - $24.68) / $24.68 = 221.2% $3.39 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
3.39$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.39) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 7.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.39 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $66.07 per share. Dividend yield: 5.3%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (26 analysts) $26.75
Analyst Range $26.00 – $27.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 147%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
⚠ Dividend yield of 5.3% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $26.75 (from 26 analysts). Our estimate is 147% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify