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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 70.8% below fair value
Current Price $8.24
Bear Case $19.11 131.9% upside ($19.11 - $8.24) / $8.24 = 131.9% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $28.22 242.5% upside ($28.22 - $8.24) / $8.24 = 242.5% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $37.33 353.1% upside ($37.33 - $8.24) / $8.24 = 353.1% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 1.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Stock is 45% below 52-week high. Using current FCF at a 6x depressed multiple, base-case value is $28.22. Wide scenario range: $19.11–$37.33.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case