KNX - Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$82.83
DETAILS
HIGH:
$100.00
LOW:
$63.00
MEDIAN:
$87.00
CONSENSUS:
$82.83
UPSIDE:
10.16%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
5.5x
2.14$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($2.14)
Implied Market Multiple
35.1x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $82.83 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $28.60 per share.
Warnings
This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 10.1x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $82.83 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing