Kinetik Holdings Inc. logo KNTK - Kinetik Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $53.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $51.00
CONSENSUS: $51.40
UPSIDE: 6.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.8% below fair value
Current Price $48.28
Bear Case $55.04 14.0% upside ($55.04 - $48.28) / $48.28 = 14.0% $3.32 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.80 42.5% upside ($68.80 - $48.28) / $48.28 = 42.5% $3.32 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $82.56 71.0% upside ($82.56 - $48.28) / $48.28 = 71.0% $3.32 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.32$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 14.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.40 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.80 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 121% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $51.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 45% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples