Kinetik Holdings Inc. logo KNTK - Kinetik Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $55.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $51.00
MEDIAN: $54.00
CONSENSUS: $55.33
UPSIDE: 1.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.9% below fair value
Current Price $54.50
Bear Case $47.34 13.1% downside ($47.34 - $54.50) / $54.50 = -13.1% $2.63 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $59.17 8.6% upside ($59.17 - $54.50) / $54.50 = 8.6% $2.63 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $71.01 30.3% upside ($71.01 - $54.50) / $54.50 = 30.3% $2.63 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
2.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.63, the base-case value is $59.17 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (16 analysts) $55.33
Analyst Range $51.00 – $70.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 7%

Warnings

The company pays out 122% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples