Kinetik Holdings Inc. logo KNTK - Kinetik Holdings Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $52.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $50.50
CONSENSUS: $50.00
DOWNSIDE: 1.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.2% below fair value
Current Price $50.53
Bear Case $54.76 8.4% upside ($54.76 - $50.53) / $50.53 = 8.4% $3.32 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $68.45 35.5% upside ($68.45 - $50.53) / $50.53 = 35.5% $3.32 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $82.14 62.6% upside ($82.14 - $50.53) / $50.53 = 62.6% $3.32 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
3.32$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $50.00 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $68.45 per share.

Warnings

The company pays out 121% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $50.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 49% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples