Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. logo KNSL - Kinsale Capital Group, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 8
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $433.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $433.00
LOW: $433.00
MEDIAN: $433.00
CONSENSUS: $433.00
UPSIDE: 39.59%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.2% below fair value
Current Price $310.19
Bear Case $247.27 20.3% downside ($247.27 - $310.19) / $310.19 = -20.3% ROTCE 20.0% → 2.90x TBV
Fair Value $341.53 10.1% upside ($341.53 - $310.19) / $310.19 = 10.1% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $341.53 10.1% upside ($341.53 - $310.19) / $310.19 = 10.1% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

27.4%
9.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (27.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.89x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $433.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $341.53 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $433.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 26% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly