Knowles Corporation logo KN - Knowles Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $39.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.50
CONSENSUS: $38.50
UPSIDE: 5.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 80.8% above fair value
Current Price $36.66
Bear Case $16.22 55.8% downside ($16.22 - $36.66) / $36.66 = -55.8% $0.63 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $20.27 44.7% downside ($20.27 - $36.66) / $36.66 = -44.7% $0.63 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $24.33 33.6% downside ($24.33 - $36.66) / $36.66 = -33.6% $0.63 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 58.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $38.50 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $20.27 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $38.50 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 63% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples