KMT - Kennametal Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$36.38
DETAILS
HIGH:
$47.50
LOW:
$30.00
MEDIAN:
$34.00
CONSENSUS:
$36.38
UPSIDE:
23.20%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
4.42$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
6.7x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.42, the base-case value is $66.30 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (24 analysts)
$36.38
Analyst Range
$30.00 – $47.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
82%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $36.38 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples