Kennametal Inc. logo KMT - Kennametal Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 5
HOLD 14
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.50
LOW: $29.00
MEDIAN: $39.00
CONSENSUS: $37.50
UPSIDE: 3.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 30.0% above fair value
Current Price $36.08
Bear Case $22.21 38.4% downside ($22.21 - $36.08) / $36.08 = -38.4% $1.63 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $27.76 23.1% downside ($27.76 - $36.08) / $36.08 = -23.1% $1.63 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $33.31 7.7% downside ($33.31 - $36.08) / $36.08 = -7.7% $1.63 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.63$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $37.50 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $27.76 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 36%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $37.50 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples