Kennametal Inc. logo KMT - Kennametal Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 13
SELL 6
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $36.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.50
LOW: $30.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $36.38
UPSIDE: 23.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.5% below fair value
Current Price $29.53
Bear Case $53.04 79.6% upside ($53.04 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 79.6% $4.42 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $66.30 124.5% upside ($66.30 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 124.5% $4.42 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $79.56 169.4% upside ($79.56 - $29.53) / $29.53 = 169.4% $4.42 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
4.42$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $4.42, the base-case value is $66.30 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (24 analysts) $36.38
Analyst Range $30.00 – $47.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 82%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $36.38 (from 24 analysts). Our estimate is 82% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples