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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $225.97 DETAILS
HIGH: $325.00
LOW: $145.00
MEDIAN: $200.00
CONSENSUS: $225.97
UPSIDE: 3.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 36.8% above fair value
Current Price $219.37
Bear Case $80.59 63.3% downside ($80.59 - $219.37) / $219.37 = -63.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $160.39 26.9% downside ($160.39 - $219.37) / $219.37 = -26.9% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $267.19 21.8% upside ($267.19 - $219.37) / $219.37 = 21.8% 30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 81.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.0% vs our 23.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $225.97 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $160.39 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $225.97 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions