KLA Corporation logo KLAC - KLA Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $220.26 DETAILS
HIGH: $325.00
LOW: $145.00
MEDIAN: $200.00
CONSENSUS: $220.26
DOWNSIDE: 4.39%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 45.2% above fair value
Current Price $230.37
Bear Case $79.73 65.4% downside ($79.73 - $230.37) / $230.37 = -65.4% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $158.67 31.1% downside ($158.67 - $230.37) / $230.37 = -31.1% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $264.34 14.7% upside ($264.34 - $230.37) / $230.37 = 14.7% 30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 85.4x
Market is pricing in (growth) 30.6% vs our 23.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $220.26 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $158.67 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $220.26 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 40% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions