KLA Corporation logo KLAC - KLA Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 28
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $1,819.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $2,000.00
LOW: $1,450.00
MEDIAN: $1,842.50
CONSENSUS: $1,819.38
DOWNSIDE: 3.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 28.3% above fair value
Current Price $1888.38
Bear Case $739.53 60.8% downside ($739.53 - $1,888.38) / $1,888.38 = -60.8% 14% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $1,471.75 22.1% downside ($1,471.75 - $1,888.38) / $1,888.38 = -22.1% 23% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $2,451.94 29.8% upside ($2,451.94 - $1,888.38) / $1,888.38 = 29.8% 30% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

23.1%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (23% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 44%
Implied Market Multiple 70.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $1819.38 from 44 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $1471.75 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $1819.38 (from 44 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions