KKR & Co. Inc. logo KKR - KKR & Co. Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $126.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $147.00
LOW: $116.00
MEDIAN: $123.00
CONSENSUS: $126.78
UPSIDE: 30.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.5% above fair value
Current Price $97.21
Bear Case $60.50 37.8% downside ($60.50 - $97.21) / $97.21 = -37.8% ROTCE 8.0% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $86.42 11.1% downside ($86.42 - $97.21) / $97.21 = -11.1% ROTCE 10.7% → 0.67x TBV
Bull Case $112.35 15.6% upside ($112.35 - $97.21) / $97.21 = 15.6% ROTCE 12.3% → 0.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.7%
14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.95x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 10.7% vs. 14.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.67x on $24.64 tangible book, implying $86.42 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.70.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $126.78
Analyst Range $116.00 – $147.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (10.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.70 (90% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $126.78 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly