KKR & Co. Inc. logo KKR - KKR & Co. Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $141.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $187.00
LOW: $119.00
MEDIAN: $137.00
CONSENSUS: $141.14
UPSIDE: 54.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.4% below fair value
Current Price $91.51
Bear Case $70.70 22.7% downside ($70.70 - $91.51) / $91.51 = -22.7% ROTCE 8.0% → 0.40x TBV
Fair Value $101.00 10.4% upside ($101.00 - $91.51) / $91.51 = 10.4% ROTCE 10.7% → 0.67x TBV
Bull Case $131.30 43.5% upside ($131.30 - $91.51) / $91.51 = 43.5% ROTCE 12.3% → 0.83x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

10.7%
14.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (10.7%) vs. cost of equity (14.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.71x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $141.14 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $101.00 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (10.7%) is below the minimum investors require (14.0%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.66 (90% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $141.14 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 38% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly