Kimco Realty Corporation logo KIM - Kimco Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 13
HOLD 22
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $27.00
CONSENSUS: $26.80
UPSIDE: 3.20%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 49.7% below fair value
Current Price $25.97
Bear Case $42.91 65.2% upside ($42.91 - $25.97) / $25.97 = 65.2% $1.79 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $51.67 99.0% upside ($51.67 - $25.97) / $25.97 = 99.0% $1.79 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $60.43 132.7% upside ($60.43 - $25.97) / $25.97 = 132.7% $1.79 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.79) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 14.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.80 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.67 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $126.53 (103% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.80 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 133% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify