KIM - Kimco Realty Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$27.10
DETAILS
HIGH:
$29.00
LOW:
$25.00
MEDIAN:
$28.00
CONSENSUS:
$27.10
UPSIDE:
14.83%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.79) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.2x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.79 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $44.57 per share. Dividend yield: 4.5%. DDM cross-check: $67.35.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (36 analysts)
$27.10
Analyst Range
$25.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
64%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.35 (51% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.10 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify