Kimco Realty Corporation logo KIM - Kimco Realty Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 13
HOLD 22
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $27.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $29.00
LOW: $25.00
MEDIAN: $28.00
CONSENSUS: $27.10
UPSIDE: 14.83%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 47.1% below fair value
Current Price $23.60
Bear Case $36.67 55.4% upside ($36.67 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 55.4% $1.79 FFO × 16x
Fair Value $44.57 88.9% upside ($44.57 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 88.9% $1.79 FFO × 20x
Bull Case $52.48 122.4% upside ($52.48 - $23.60) / $23.60 = 122.4% $1.79 FFO × 23x

Adjust Assumptions

19.5x
1.79$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.79) × retail P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.2x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.79 FFO/share with a 20x retail REIT multiple, the base-case value is $44.57 per share. Dividend yield: 4.5%. DDM cross-check: $67.35.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (36 analysts) $27.10
Analyst Range $25.00 – $29.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 64%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $67.35 (51% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $27.10 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 64% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify