KIM - Kimco Realty Corporation
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$24.47
DETAILS
HIGH:
$28.00
LOW:
$21.00
MEDIAN:
$25.00
CONSENSUS:
$24.47
UPSIDE:
1.49%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
19.5x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.79) × retail P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.5x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Retail REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $24.47 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.97 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $126.53 (103% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $24.47 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 155% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify