OrthoPediatrics Corp. logo KIDS - OrthoPediatrics Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $21.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $25.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $21.00
CONSENSUS: $21.00
UPSIDE: 14.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 249.0% above fair value
Current Price $18.37
Bear Case $4.20 77.2% downside ($4.20 - $18.37) / $18.37 = -77.2% $0.06 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $5.26 71.3% downside ($5.26 - $18.37) / $18.37 = -71.3% $0.06 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $6.29 65.7% downside ($6.29 - $18.37) / $18.37 = -65.7% $0.06 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.06$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 311.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $21.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $5.26 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $21.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples