Is KGSPY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Kingspan Group plc's fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag KGSPY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Kingspan Group plc's fair value?

Fair value for KGSPY is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value KGSPY?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from KGSPY's most recent reported fundamentals.

KGSPY - Kingspan Group plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate

Trading 39.8% above fair value

Current Price $85.41

Bear Case $44.79 47.6% downside ($44.79 - $85.41) / $85.41 = -47.6% $4.07 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $61.08 28.5% downside ($61.08 - $85.41) / $85.41 = -28.5% $4.07 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $77.37 9.4% downside ($77.37 - $85.41) / $85.41 = -9.4% $4.07 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

4.07$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.07)

Implied Market Multiple 21.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.07 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $61.08 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 18.7x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.

⚠ Price-to-book value of 18.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1635 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing