Is KGSPY undervalued?

AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Kingspan Group plc as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag KGSPY as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Kingspan Group plc's fair value?

Fair value for KGSPY comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value KGSPY?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. KGSPY was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from KGSPY's most recent reported fundamentals.

KGSPY - Kingspan Group plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 61.5% above fair value

Current Price $119.59

Bear Case $43.03 64.0% downside ($43.03 - $119.59) / $119.59 = -64.0% 9% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $74.03 38.1% downside ($74.03 - $119.59) / $119.59 = -38.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $108.36 9.4% downside ($108.36 - $119.59) / $119.59 = -9.4% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

15.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (15% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%

Implied Market Multiple 41.2x

Market is pricing in (growth) 20.7% vs our 15.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 15% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $74.03 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1632 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions