Kforce Inc. logo KFRC - Kforce Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $71.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $71.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $71.00
CONSENSUS: $71.00
UPSIDE: 21.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.1% above fair value
Current Price $58.56
Bear Case $41.41 29.3% downside ($41.41 - $58.56) / $58.56 = -29.3% $3.13 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $51.76 11.6% downside ($51.76 - $58.56) / $58.56 = -11.6% $3.13 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $62.11 6.1% upside ($62.11 - $58.56) / $58.56 = 6.1% $3.13 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
3.13$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $71.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $51.76 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 60%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 81% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $193.27 (above our primary estimate by 312%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $71.00 (from 10 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples