Keysight Technologies, Inc. logo KEYS - Keysight Technologies, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $370.78 DETAILS
HIGH: $425.00
LOW: $220.00
MEDIAN: $385.00
CONSENSUS: $370.78
UPSIDE: 6.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 101.0% above fair value
Current Price $346.56
Bear Case $140.55 59.4% downside ($140.55 - $346.56) / $346.56 = -59.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $172.38 50.3% downside ($172.38 - $346.56) / $346.56 = -50.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $200.92 42.0% downside ($200.92 - $346.56) / $346.56 = -42.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.5%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 52.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $370.78 from 16 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $172.38 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $370.78 (from 16 analysts). Our estimate is 71% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions