Kirby Corporation logo KEX - Kirby Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 20
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $151.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $160.00
LOW: $136.00
MEDIAN: $158.00
CONSENSUS: $151.33
UPSIDE: 5.57%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.9% below fair value
Current Price $143.34
Bear Case $102.51 28.5% downside ($102.51 - $143.34) / $143.34 = -28.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $154.04 7.5% upside ($154.04 - $143.34) / $143.34 = 7.5% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $206.71 44.2% upside ($206.71 - $143.34) / $143.34 = 44.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 22.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $151.33 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $154.04 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions