Keel Infrastructure Corp. logo KEEL - Keel Infrastructure Corp.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 0
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $8.00
LOW: $3.00
MEDIAN: $5.00
CONSENSUS: $5.25
DOWNSIDE: 12.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 109.9% above fair value
Current Price $6.03
Bear Case $2.41 60.1% downside ($2.41 - $6.03) / $6.03 = -60.1% $0.09 × 27x P/E
Fair Value $2.87 52.3% downside ($2.87 - $6.03) / $6.03 = -52.3% $0.09 × 32x P/E
Bull Case $3.34 44.6% downside ($3.34 - $6.03) / $6.03 = -44.6% $0.09 × 38x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

32.2x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (32x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 67.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 32x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $2.87 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples