Kimball Electronics, Inc. logo KE - Kimball Electronics, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $26.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $32.00
LOW: $20.00
MEDIAN: $26.00
CONSENSUS: $26.00
UPSIDE: 5.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 66.8% below fair value
Current Price $24.74
Bear Case $64.84 162.1% upside ($64.84 - $24.74) / $24.74 = 162.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $74.60 201.5% upside ($74.60 - $24.74) / $24.74 = 201.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $83.29 236.6% upside ($83.29 - $24.74) / $24.74 = 236.6% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 4.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) -12.7% vs our 4.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $26.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $74.60 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 38% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $26.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 234% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions