KBR, Inc. logo KBR - KBR, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $41.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $41.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $41.00
UPSIDE: 8.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.3% below fair value
Current Price $37.69
Bear Case $43.70 15.9% upside ($43.70 - $37.69) / $37.69 = 15.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $56.51 49.9% upside ($56.51 - $37.69) / $37.69 = 49.9% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $67.88 80.1% upside ($67.88 - $37.69) / $37.69 = 80.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

6.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (6% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 12.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.4% vs our 6.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 6% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $56.51 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (31 analysts) $41.00
Analyst Range $41.00 – $41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 38%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $41.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 38% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions