KBR, Inc. logo KBR - KBR, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $48.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $36.00
MEDIAN: $50.00
CONSENSUS: $48.67
UPSIDE: 45.46%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 70% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 15.1% below fair value
Current Price $33.46
Bear Case $31.42 6.1% downside ($31.42 - $33.46) / $33.46 = -6.1% 3% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $39.40 17.8% upside ($39.40 - $33.46) / $33.46 = 17.8% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $46.50 39.0% upside ($46.50 - $33.46) / $33.46 = 39.0% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

4.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (5% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 34%
Implied Market Multiple 14.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $48.67 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $48.67 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions