JXN - Jackson Financial Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$142.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$151.00
LOW:
$135.00
MEDIAN:
$140.00
CONSENSUS:
$142.00
UPSIDE:
9.47%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
0.3%
11.6%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (0.3%) vs. cost of equity (11.6%)
Implied Market Multiple
0.91x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of 0.3% vs. 11.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $142.71 tangible book, implying $129.14 per share. DDM cross-check: $286.78.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (6 analysts)
$142.00
Analyst Range
$135.00 – $151.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
9%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (0.3%) is below the minimum investors require (11.6%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $286.78 (122% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly