AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag JPM as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s fair value?

Fair value for JPM is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value JPM?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from JPM's most recent reported fundamentals.

JPM - JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $366.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 90% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 10.3% above fair value

Current Price $353.21

Bear Case $219.07 38.0% downside ($219.07 - $353.21) / $353.21 = -38.0% ROTCE 14.4% → 1.82x TBV

Fair Value $320.30 9.3% downside ($320.30 - $353.21) / $353.21 = -9.3% ROTCE 19.1% → 2.66x TBV

Bull Case $381.03 7.9% upside ($381.03 - $353.21) / $353.21 = 7.9% ROTCE 22.0% → 3.16x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

19.1%

Cost of Equity

9.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.1%) vs. cost of equity (9.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 3.18x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $366.50 from 61 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $320.30 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $518.96 (76% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly