Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated logo JLL - Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 6
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $450.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $500.00
LOW: $401.00
MEDIAN: $450.50
CONSENSUS: $450.50
UPSIDE: 24.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 37.0% above fair value
Current Price $362.30
Bear Case $211.55 41.6% downside ($211.55 - $362.30) / $362.30 = -41.6% $16.40 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $264.44 27.0% downside ($264.44 - $362.30) / $362.30 = -27.0% $16.40 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $317.33 12.4% downside ($317.33 - $362.30) / $362.30 = -12.4% $16.40 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.1x
16.4$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 16x P/E to adjusted EPS of $16.40, the base-case value is $264.44 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $450.50
Analyst Range $401.00 – $500.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 41%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $450.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 41% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples