Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated logo JLL - Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 6
HOLD 3
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $395.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $425.00
LOW: $366.00
MEDIAN: $395.50
CONSENSUS: $395.50
UPSIDE: 21.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 75% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 6.1% above fair value
Current Price $324.33
Bear Case $244.49 24.6% downside ($244.49 - $324.33) / $324.33 = -24.6% $17.56 × 13x P/E
Fair Value $305.61 5.8% downside ($305.61 - $324.33) / $324.33 = -5.8% $17.56 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $366.74 13.1% upside ($366.74 - $324.33) / $324.33 = 13.1% $17.56 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.1x
17.56$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $395.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $305.61 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $395.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples