JD.com, Inc. logo JD - JD.com, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 32
HOLD 12
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $43.00
LOW: $22.00
MEDIAN: $36.00
CONSENSUS: $35.25
UPSIDE: 15.50%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.4% below fair value
Current Price $30.52
Bear Case $57.37 88.0% upside ($57.37 - $30.52) / $30.52 = 88.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $75.24 146.5% upside ($75.24 - $30.52) / $30.52 = 146.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $93.17 205.3% upside ($93.17 - $30.52) / $30.52 = 205.3% 14% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

10.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (11% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 5.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $35.25 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $75.24 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $35.25 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 162% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1474 USD per CNY.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions