J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. logo JBHT - J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 25
HOLD 20
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $225.82 DETAILS
HIGH: $285.00
LOW: $180.00
MEDIAN: $230.00
CONSENSUS: $225.82
DOWNSIDE: 12.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 95.1% above fair value
Current Price $258.77
Bear Case $106.12 59.0% downside ($106.12 - $258.77) / $258.77 = -59.0% $6.18 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $132.64 48.7% downside ($132.64 - $258.77) / $258.77 = -48.7% $6.18 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $159.18 38.5% downside ($159.18 - $258.77) / $258.77 = -38.5% $6.18 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 41.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $225.82 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $132.64 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $60.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $225.82 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 59% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples