J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. logo JBHT - J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 26
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $274.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $329.00
LOW: $200.00
MEDIAN: $285.00
CONSENSUS: $274.38
DOWNSIDE: 3.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 92.2% above fair value
Current Price $283.00
Bear Case $117.77 58.4% downside ($117.77 - $283.00) / $283.00 = -58.4% $6.18 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $147.21 48.0% downside ($147.21 - $283.00) / $283.00 = -48.0% $6.18 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $176.67 37.6% downside ($176.67 - $283.00) / $283.00 = -37.6% $6.18 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.18$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 45.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $274.38 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $147.21 per share.

Warnings

Dividend-based valuation: $60.64 (below our primary estimate by 35%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $274.38 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 66% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples