JBGS - JBG SMITH Properties
Price:
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--
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$18.33
DETAILS
HIGH:
$19.00
LOW:
$18.00
MEDIAN:
$18.00
CONSENSUS:
$18.33
UPSIDE:
26.33%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Distressed or Transitioning
75% confidence
Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
7.5x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
30.2x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $18.33 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.55 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($42.37) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $18.33 (from 6 analysts). Our estimate is 80% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case