Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc logo JAZZ - Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 43
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $264.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $307.00
LOW: $229.00
MEDIAN: $257.00
CONSENSUS: $264.20
UPSIDE: 10.99%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.2% below fair value
Current Price $238.05
Bear Case $197.54 17.0% downside ($197.54 - $238.05) / $238.05 = -17.0% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $298.38 25.3% upside ($298.38 - $238.05) / $238.05 = 25.3% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $401.69 68.7% upside ($401.69 - $238.05) / $238.05 = 68.7% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 19.3x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.5% vs our 11.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $264.20 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $298.38 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions