Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc logo JAZZ - Jazz Pharmaceuticals plc

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 43
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $261.11 DETAILS
HIGH: $307.00
LOW: $229.00
MEDIAN: $253.00
CONSENSUS: $261.11
UPSIDE: 7.09%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 18.0% below fair value
Current Price $243.82
Bear Case $196.93 19.2% downside ($196.93 - $243.82) / $243.82 = -19.2% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $297.45 22.0% upside ($297.45 - $243.82) / $243.82 = 22.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $400.44 64.2% upside ($400.44 - $243.82) / $243.82 = 64.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 19.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.8% vs our 11.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $261.11 from 48 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $297.45 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions