J - Jacobs Solutions Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$162.57
DETAILS
HIGH:
$174.00
LOW:
$150.00
MEDIAN:
$163.00
CONSENSUS:
$162.57
UPSIDE:
7.23%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Cyclical & Capital-Intensive
80% confidence
Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
18.0x
4.98$
Key Value Driver
Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.98)
Implied Market Multiple
30.4x
Plain-Language Summary
Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.98 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $89.64 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (38 analysts)
$162.57
Analyst Range
$150.00 – $174.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
45%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $162.57 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
- 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
- Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing