Jacobs Solutions Inc. logo J - Jacobs Solutions Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 24
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $156.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $137.00
MEDIAN: $156.50
CONSENSUS: $156.17
UPSIDE: 36.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.7% above fair value
Current Price $114.69
Bear Case $74.82 34.8% downside ($74.82 - $114.69) / $114.69 = -34.8% $4.98 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $100.86 12.1% downside ($100.86 - $114.69) / $114.69 = -12.1% $4.98 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $126.90 10.6% upside ($126.90 - $114.69) / $114.69 = 10.6% $4.98 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
4.98$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.98)

Implied Market Multiple 23.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $156.17 from 38 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $100.86 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $156.17 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing