Jacobs Solutions Inc. logo J - Jacobs Solutions Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 24
HOLD 14
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $162.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $174.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $163.00
CONSENSUS: $162.57
UPSIDE: 7.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 69.1% above fair value
Current Price $151.61
Bear Case $69.72 54.0% downside ($69.72 - $151.61) / $151.61 = -54.0% $4.98 × 14x
Fair Value $89.64 40.9% downside ($89.64 - $151.61) / $151.61 = -40.9% $4.98 × 18x
Bull Case $109.56 27.7% downside ($109.56 - $151.61) / $151.61 = -27.7% $4.98 × 22x

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
4.98$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($4.98)

Implied Market Multiple 30.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $4.98 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $89.64 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (38 analysts) $162.57
Analyst Range $150.00 – $174.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 45%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $162.57 (from 38 analysts). Our estimate is 45% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing