IVZ - Invesco Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$32.80
DETAILS
HIGH:
$39.00
LOW:
$28.00
MEDIAN:
$32.00
CONSENSUS:
$32.80
DOWNSIDE:
2.05%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-2.3%
13.1%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.3%) vs. cost of equity (13.1%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.21x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of -2.3% vs. 13.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $27.59 tangible book, implying $23.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $9.18.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$32.80
Analyst Range
$28.00 – $39.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
28%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.3%) is below the minimum investors require (13.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $9.18 (61% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.80 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly