IVZ - Invesco Ltd.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$34.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$41.00
LOW:
$30.00
MEDIAN:
$33.00
CONSENSUS:
$34.00
UPSIDE:
15.22%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers
85% confidence
Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality
Adjust Assumptions
-2.3%
13.3%
Key Value Driver
ROTCE (-2.3%) vs. cost of equity (13.3%)
Implied Market Multiple
1.07x
Plain-Language Summary
With ROTCE of -2.3% vs. 13.3% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $27.59 tangible book, implying $23.60 per share. DDM cross-check: $8.99.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (28 analysts)
$34.00
Analyst Range
$30.00 – $41.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
31%
Warnings
Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Return on equity (-2.3%) is below the minimum investors require (13.3%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.
Dividend-based valuation: $8.99 (62% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $34.00 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 31% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
- Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
- Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly