AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag IVR as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for IVR comes from a P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value IVR?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. IVR was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, built from IVR's most recent reported fundamentals.

IVR - Invesco Mortgage Capital Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $7.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 64.8% below fair value

Current Price $5.54

Bear Case $13.05 135.5% upside ($13.05 - $5.54) / $5.54 = 135.5% $1.10 FFO × 14x

Fair Value $15.76 184.4% upside ($15.76 - $5.54) / $5.54 = 184.4% $1.10 FFO × 17x

Bull Case $18.47 233.3% upside ($18.47 - $5.54) / $5.54 = 233.3% $1.10 FFO × 20x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

17.0x

FFO per Share

1.1$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.10) × default P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 5.0x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.10 FFO/share with a 17x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $15.76 per share. Dividend yield: 8.7%. DDM cross-check: $8.95.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $7.75

Analyst Range $7.75 – $7.75

Divergence from AlphaVal 103%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 8.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $8.95 (43% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $7.75 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 103% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

⚠ This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify