AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ITW as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Illinois Tool Works Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ITW is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ITW?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ITW's most recent reported fundamentals.

ITW - Illinois Tool Works Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $275.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 46.1% above fair value

Current Price $275.82

Bear Case $151.00 45.3% downside ($151.00 - $275.82) / $275.82 = -45.3% $10.65 × 12x P/E

Fair Value $188.73 31.6% downside ($188.73 - $275.82) / $275.82 = -31.6% $10.65 × 15x P/E

Bull Case $226.49 17.9% downside ($226.49 - $275.82) / $275.82 = -17.9% $10.65 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

P/E Multiple

15.0x

Adjusted EPS

10.65$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $275.75 from 28 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $188.73 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $296.54 (above our primary estimate by 86%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $275.75 (from 28 analysts). Our estimate is 42% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples