ITT Inc. logo ITT - ITT Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 15
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $243.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $255.00
LOW: $230.00
MEDIAN: $246.00
CONSENSUS: $243.33
UPSIDE: 24.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.8% below fair value
Current Price $195.01
Bear Case $153.82 21.1% downside ($153.82 - $195.01) / $195.01 = -21.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $308.53 58.2% upside ($308.53 - $195.01) / $195.01 = 58.2% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $522.90 168.1% upside ($522.90 - $195.01) / $195.01 = 168.1% 32% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

24.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (25% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 31.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $243.33 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $308.53 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $243.33 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 36% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions