ITT Inc. logo ITT - ITT Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $241.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $255.00
LOW: $229.00
MEDIAN: $246.00
CONSENSUS: $241.29
UPSIDE: 23.74%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 44.3% below fair value
Current Price $195.00
Bear Case $171.16 12.2% downside ($171.16 - $195.00) / $195.00 = -12.2% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $350.17 79.6% upside ($350.17 - $195.00) / $195.00 = 79.6% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $599.89 207.6% upside ($599.89 - $195.00) / $195.00 = 207.6% 32% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

24.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (25% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 49%
Implied Market Multiple 31.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.2% vs our 24.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $241.29 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $350.17 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $241.29 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 60% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions