Iron Mountain Incorporated logo IRM - Iron Mountain Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 2
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $146.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $140.00
MEDIAN: $143.00
CONSENSUS: $146.00
UPSIDE: 24.94%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.9% below fair value
Current Price $116.86
Bear Case $156.93 34.3% upside ($156.93 - $116.86) / $116.86 = 34.3% $3.93 FFO × 25x
Fair Value $188.12 61.0% upside ($188.12 - $116.86) / $116.86 = 61.0% $3.93 FFO × 31x
Bull Case $219.30 87.7% upside ($219.30 - $116.86) / $116.86 = 87.7% $3.93 FFO × 36x

Adjust Assumptions

30.7x
3.93$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($3.93) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 29.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $3.93 FFO/share with a 31x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $188.12 per share. Dividend yield: 3.0%. DDM cross-check: $345.81.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $146.00
Analyst Range $140.00 – $155.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 29%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $345.81 (84% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $146.00 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 29% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify