Iron Mountain Incorporated logo IRM - Iron Mountain Incorporated

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 2
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $142.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $132.00
MEDIAN: $142.00
CONSENSUS: $142.75
UPSIDE: 24.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Specialty REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.8% below fair value
Current Price $114.72
Bear Case $158.82 38.4% upside ($158.82 - $114.72) / $114.72 = 38.4% $4.04 FFO × 25x
Fair Value $190.43 66.0% upside ($190.43 - $114.72) / $114.72 = 66.0% $4.04 FFO × 31x
Bull Case $222.05 93.6% upside ($222.05 - $114.72) / $114.72 = 93.6% $4.04 FFO × 36x

Adjust Assumptions

30.7x
4.04$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($4.04) × specialty P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 28.4x

Plain-Language Summary

At $4.04 FFO/share with a 31x specialty REIT multiple, the base-case value is $190.43 per share. Dividend yield: 3.0%. DDM cross-check: $345.81.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $142.75
Analyst Range $132.00 – $155.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 33%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $345.81 (82% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $142.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 33% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify