AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies IREN Limited as a High-Growth Software business and values it using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag IREN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is IREN Limited's fair value?

Fair value for IREN comes from a Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's High-Growth Software classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value IREN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. IREN was classified as High-Growth Software and is valued using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, built from IREN's most recent reported fundamentals.

IREN - IREN Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $81.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 229.7% above fair value

Current Price $27.73

Bear Case $0.11 99.6% downside ($0.11 - $27.73) / $27.73 = -99.6% 18% rev growth, 14% terminal margin

Fair Value $8.41 69.7% downside ($8.41 - $27.73) / $27.73 = -69.7% 30% rev growth, 18% terminal margin

Bull Case $15.09 45.6% downside ($15.09 - $27.73) / $27.73 = -45.6% 35% rev growth, 21% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

Revenue Growth Rate

30.0%

Terminal FCF Margin

18.0%

Discount Rate

12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (30%) × margin expansion to 18%

Terminal Value % of EV 69%

Implied Market Multiple 16.7x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Projecting 30% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 0% to 18% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $8.41 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $81.00

Analyst Range $40.00 – $100.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 90%

Warnings

⚠ Our estimate assumes profit margins grow from 0% to 18% over 10 years. If that improvement stalls, the company is worth considerably less.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $81.00 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 90% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

⚠ This stock is 64% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep