Ingersoll Rand Inc. logo IR - Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $103.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $90.60
UPSIDE: 13.26%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.4% above fair value
Current Price $79.99
Bear Case $45.49 43.1% downside ($45.49 - $79.99) / $79.99 = -43.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $61.83 22.7% downside ($61.83 - $79.99) / $79.99 = -22.7% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $77.39 3.2% downside ($77.39 - $79.99) / $79.99 = -3.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 24.8x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.9% vs our 8.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 9% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $61.83 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $90.60
Analyst Range $84.00 – $103.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 32%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $90.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 32% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions