Ingersoll Rand Inc. logo IR - Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $96.40 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $96.40
UPSIDE: 35.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 11.8% above fair value
Current Price $70.91
Bear Case $46.39 34.6% downside ($46.39 - $70.91) / $70.91 = -34.6% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $63.40 10.6% downside ($63.40 - $70.91) / $70.91 = -10.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $79.58 12.2% upside ($79.58 - $70.91) / $70.91 = 12.2% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 25.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $96.40 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $63.40 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $96.40 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 46% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions