Ingersoll Rand Inc. logo IR - Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $93.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $80.00
MEDIAN: $92.50
CONSENSUS: $93.67
UPSIDE: 18.80%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 26.0% above fair value
Current Price $78.85
Bear Case $45.75 42.0% downside ($45.75 - $78.85) / $78.85 = -42.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $62.59 20.6% downside ($62.59 - $78.85) / $78.85 = -20.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $78.62 0.3% downside ($78.62 - $78.85) / $78.85 = -0.3% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

8.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 28.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 13.6% vs our 8.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $93.67 from 15 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $62.59 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $93.67 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions