Ingersoll Rand Inc. logo IR - Ingersoll Rand Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $90.60 DETAILS
HIGH: $103.00
LOW: $84.00
MEDIAN: $87.00
CONSENSUS: $90.60
UPSIDE: 15.05%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 65% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 41.7% above fair value
Current Price $78.75
Bear Case $42.59 45.9% downside ($42.59 - $78.75) / $78.75 = -45.9% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $55.59 29.4% downside ($55.59 - $78.75) / $78.75 = -29.4% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $67.57 14.2% downside ($67.57 - $78.75) / $78.75 = -14.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.6%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 24.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.7% vs our 7.6% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 8% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $55.59 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (15 analysts) $90.60
Analyst Range $84.00 – $103.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 39%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $90.60 (from 15 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions