IPG Photonics Corporation logo IPGP - IPG Photonics Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 16
HOLD 10
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $151.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $180.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $158.00
CONSENSUS: $151.50
UPSIDE: 42.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 10.6% above fair value
Current Price $106.48
Bear Case $78.18 26.6% downside ($78.18 - $106.48) / $106.48 = -26.6% $3.65 × 12x + net cash
Fair Value $96.25 9.6% downside ($96.25 - $106.48) / $106.48 = -9.6% $3.65 × 16x + net cash
Bull Case $114.33 7.4% upside ($114.33 - $106.48) / $106.48 = 7.4% $3.65 × 20x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
3.65$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.65)

Implied Market Multiple 29.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $151.50 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $96.25 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 2.3x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $151.50 (from 27 analysts). Our estimate is 49% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing