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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 6
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $50.14 DETAILS
HIGH: $61.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $49.00
CONSENSUS: $50.14
UPSIDE: 44.75%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 13.3% above fair value
Current Price $34.64
Bear Case $24.46 29.4% downside ($24.46 - $34.64) / $34.64 = -29.4% $2.04 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $30.57 11.7% downside ($30.57 - $34.64) / $34.64 = -11.7% $2.04 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $36.68 5.9% upside ($36.68 - $34.64) / $34.64 = 5.9% $2.04 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.04$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 17.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.04, the base-case value is $30.57 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (29 analysts) $50.14
Analyst Range $46.00 – $61.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 39%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $50.14 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples