IP - International Paper Company
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$50.14
DETAILS
HIGH:
$61.00
LOW:
$46.00
MEDIAN:
$49.00
CONSENSUS:
$50.14
UPSIDE:
44.75%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Stable Earnings Power
40% confidence
Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
15.0x
2.04$
Key Value Driver
Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)
Implied Market Multiple
17.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $2.04, the base-case value is $30.57 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (29 analysts)
$50.14
Analyst Range
$46.00 – $61.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
39%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $50.14 (from 29 analysts). Our estimate is 39% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
- EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
- Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples