International Paper Company logo IP - International Paper Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 8
SELL 7
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $48.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $44.00
CONSENSUS: $44.00
UPSIDE: 4.36%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 0.3% above fair value
Current Price $42.16
Bear Case $33.63 20.2% downside ($33.63 - $42.16) / $42.16 = -20.2% $2.76 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $42.03 0.3% downside ($42.03 - $42.16) / $42.16 = -0.3% $2.76 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $50.43 19.6% upside ($50.43 - $42.16) / $42.16 = 19.6% $2.76 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.76$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 15.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.00 from 29 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $42.03 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples