Innovex International, Inc. logo INVX - Innovex International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $31.67
UPSIDE: 12.87%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 71.4% above fair value
Current Price $28.06
Bear Case $10.24 63.5% downside ($10.24 - $28.06) / $28.06 = -63.5% FCF $63M × 10x
Fair Value $16.37 41.7% downside ($16.37 - $28.06) / $28.06 = -41.7% FCF $82M × 13x
Bull Case $24.07 14.2% downside ($24.07 - $28.06) / $28.06 = -14.2% FCF $100M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.0x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.37 per share. Range: $10.24 (bear) to $24.07 (bull).

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential