INVX - Innovex International, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$30.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$34.00
LOW:
$26.00
MEDIAN:
$30.00
CONSENSUS:
$30.00
UPSIDE:
0.00%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Oil & Gas E&P
85% confidence
Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
75.0$/bbl
13.0x
Key Value Driver
Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)
Implied Market Multiple
24.8x
Plain-Language Summary
At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.30 per share. Range: $10.21 (bear) to $23.97 (bull).
Warnings
Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.
Key Risks
- Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
- Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
- Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential