Innovex International, Inc. logo INVX - Innovex International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $26.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $31.33
UPSIDE: 23.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 56.2% above fair value
Current Price $25.47
Bear Case $10.21 59.9% downside ($10.21 - $25.47) / $25.47 = -59.9% FCF $62M × 10x
Fair Value $16.30 36.0% downside ($16.30 - $25.47) / $25.47 = -36.0% FCF $80M × 13x
Bull Case $23.97 5.9% downside ($23.97 - $25.47) / $25.47 = -5.9% FCF $98M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 20.9x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.30 per share. Range: $10.21 (bear) to $23.97 (bull).

Warnings

ℹ Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential