Innovex International, Inc. logo INVX - Innovex International, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 1
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $31.67
UPSIDE: 6.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Oil & Gas E&P 85% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Price Deck × Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 82.3% above fair value
Current Price $29.84
Bear Case $10.24 65.7% downside ($10.24 - $29.84) / $29.84 = -65.7% FCF $63M × 10x
Fair Value $16.37 45.1% downside ($16.37 - $29.84) / $29.84 = -45.1% FCF $82M × 13x
Bull Case $24.07 19.3% downside ($24.07 - $29.84) / $29.84 = -19.3% FCF $100M × 16x

Adjust Assumptions

75.0$/bbl
13.0x

Key Value Driver

Oil price assumption ($75/bbl base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.5x

Plain-Language Summary

At $75/bbl oil with a 13x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $16.37 per share. Range: $10.24 (bear) to $24.07 (bull).

Warnings

Where you think oil prices will settle long-term drives over 80% of this valuation. The biggest risk isn't the company itself — it's getting the commodity price wrong.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — commodity volumes do not compound
  • Geopolitical premiums are real but historically temporary
  • Reserve replacement ratio below 100% for 3 years is existential