Invitation Homes Inc. logo INVH - Invitation Homes Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 17
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.20 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $31.20
UPSIDE: 6.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.2% below fair value
Current Price $29.29
Bear Case $40.60 38.6% upside ($40.60 - $29.29) / $29.29 = 38.6% $2.25 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $48.21 64.6% upside ($48.21 - $29.29) / $29.29 = 64.6% $2.25 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $55.83 90.6% upside ($55.83 - $29.29) / $29.29 = 90.6% $2.25 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
2.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.25) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 13.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.20 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.21 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.20 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify