INVH - Invitation Homes Inc.
Price:
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--
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$31.20
DETAILS
HIGH:
$34.00
LOW:
$27.00
MEDIAN:
$32.00
CONSENSUS:
$31.20
UPSIDE:
6.52%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
24.7x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($2.25) × residential P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
13.0x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.20 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $48.21 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Wall Street's average price target is $31.20 (from 33 analysts). Our estimate is 78% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify