Invitation Homes Inc. logo INVH - Invitation Homes Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 14
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $27.00
MEDIAN: $32.00
CONSENSUS: $31.50
UPSIDE: 18.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Residential REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 57.8% below fair value
Current Price $26.48
Bear Case $53.06 100.4% upside ($53.06 - $26.48) / $26.48 = 100.4% $2.25 FFO × 21x
Fair Value $62.78 137.1% upside ($62.78 - $26.48) / $26.48 = 137.1% $2.25 FFO × 25x
Bull Case $72.51 173.8% upside ($72.51 - $26.48) / $26.48 = 173.8% $2.25 FFO × 29x

Adjust Assumptions

24.7x
2.25$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($2.25) × residential P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

At $2.25 FFO/share with a 25x residential REIT multiple, the base-case value is $62.78 per share. Dividend yield: 4.5%. DDM cross-check: $79.78.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $31.50
Analyst Range $27.00 – $35.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 99%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $79.78 (27% above our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $31.50 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 99% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify