Intuit Inc. logo INTU - Intuit Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 33
HOLD 9
SELL 3
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $495.24 DETAILS
HIGH: $720.00
LOW: $360.00
MEDIAN: $443.00
CONSENSUS: $495.24
UPSIDE: 54.79%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 58.0% below fair value
Current Price $319.94
Bear Case $391.63 22.4% upside ($391.63 - $319.94) / $319.94 = 22.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $761.81 138.1% upside ($761.81 - $319.94) / $319.94 = 138.1% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,246.62 289.6% upside ($1,246.62 - $319.94) / $319.94 = 289.6% 28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 19.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $495.24 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $761.81 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $495.24 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 77% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions