Intuit Inc. logo INTU - Intuit Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 13
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $398.10 DETAILS
HIGH: $633.00
LOW: $290.00
MEDIAN: $400.00
CONSENSUS: $398.10
UPSIDE: 19.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 54.4% below fair value
Current Price $332.70
Bear Case $488.82 46.9% upside ($488.82 - $332.70) / $332.70 = 46.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $729.50 119.3% upside ($729.50 - $332.70) / $332.70 = 119.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $986.52 196.5% upside ($986.52 - $332.70) / $332.70 = 196.5% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 12.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 2.8% vs our 13.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $729.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $398.10
Analyst Range $290.00 – $633.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 83%

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 45% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $398.10 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions