Intuit Inc. logo INTU - Intuit Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 32
HOLD 9
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $452.94 DETAILS
HIGH: $720.00
LOW: $275.00
MEDIAN: $412.00
CONSENSUS: $452.94
UPSIDE: 53.89%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.7% below fair value
Current Price $294.32
Bear Case $385.11 30.8% upside ($385.11 - $294.32) / $294.32 = 30.8% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $749.12 154.5% upside ($749.12 - $294.32) / $294.32 = 154.5% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,225.86 316.5% upside ($1,225.86 - $294.32) / $294.32 = 316.5% 28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.5% vs our 21.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $452.94 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $749.12 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $452.94 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions