Intuit Inc. logo INTU - Intuit Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 27
HOLD 13
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $379.68 DETAILS
HIGH: $500.00
LOW: $290.00
MEDIAN: $400.00
CONSENSUS: $379.68
UPSIDE: 6.98%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 52.5% below fair value
Current Price $354.90
Bear Case $500.03 40.9% upside ($500.03 - $354.90) / $354.90 = 40.9% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $746.39 110.3% upside ($746.39 - $354.90) / $354.90 = 110.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,009.47 184.4% upside ($1,009.47 - $354.90) / $354.90 = 184.4% 17% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

13.3%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 42%
Implied Market Multiple 13.2x
Market is pricing in (growth) 3.4% vs our 13.3% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 13% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $746.39 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $379.68
Analyst Range $290.00 – $500.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 97%

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 45% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $379.68 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 97% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions