INTU - Intuit Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$452.94
DETAILS
HIGH:
$720.00
LOW:
$275.00
MEDIAN:
$412.00
CONSENSUS:
$452.94
UPSIDE:
53.89%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
85% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
21.8%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (22% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
47%
Implied Market Multiple
17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth)
7.5%
vs our 21.8% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $452.94 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $749.12 per share.
Warnings
Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $452.94 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 93% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions