Intuit Inc. logo INTU - Intuit Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 31
HOLD 10
SELL 4
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $420.63 DETAILS
HIGH: $633.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $410.00
CONSENSUS: $420.63
UPSIDE: 42.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 60.1% below fair value
Current Price $294.83
Bear Case $380.12 28.9% upside ($380.12 - $294.83) / $294.83 = 28.9% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $739.42 150.8% upside ($739.42 - $294.83) / $294.83 = 150.8% 22% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $1,209.99 310.4% upside ($1,209.99 - $294.83) / $294.83 = 310.4% 28% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

21.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 18.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.5% vs our 21.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $420.63 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $739.42 per share.

Warnings

Stock-based employee pay equals 51% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
Wall Street's average price target is $420.63 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 108% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions