Inspire Medical Systems, Inc. logo INSP - Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 16
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $67.17 DETAILS
HIGH: $175.00
LOW: $39.00
MEDIAN: $57.50
CONSENSUS: $67.17
UPSIDE: 53.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 33.2% below fair value
Current Price $43.84
Bear Case $52.22 19.1% upside ($52.22 - $43.84) / $43.84 = 19.1% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $65.59 49.6% upside ($65.59 - $43.84) / $43.84 = 49.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $78.48 79.0% upside ($78.48 - $43.84) / $43.84 = 79.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 12.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $67.17 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $65.59 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions