INN - Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$7.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$7.00
LOW:
$7.00
MEDIAN:
$7.00
CONSENSUS:
$7.00
UPSIDE:
25.22%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.31) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
4.3x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.31 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $22.01 per share. Dividend yield: 5.7%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (14 analysts)
$7.00
Analyst Range
$7.00 – $7.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
214%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 214% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify