Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. logo INN - Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.00
LOW: $7.00
MEDIAN: $7.00
CONSENSUS: $7.00
UPSIDE: 25.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 74.6% below fair value
Current Price $5.59
Bear Case $18.17 225.1% upside ($18.17 - $5.59) / $5.59 = 225.1% $1.31 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $22.01 293.8% upside ($22.01 - $5.59) / $5.59 = 293.8% $1.31 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $25.85 362.4% upside ($25.85 - $5.59) / $5.59 = 362.4% $1.31 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.31) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.31 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $22.01 per share. Dividend yield: 5.7%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $7.00
Analyst Range $7.00 – $7.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 214%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.7% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 214% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify