Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. logo INN - Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $5.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $6.00
LOW: $5.00
MEDIAN: $5.50
CONSENSUS: $5.50
DOWNSIDE: 3.17%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 69.6% below fair value
Current Price $5.68
Bear Case $15.44 171.9% upside ($15.44 - $5.68) / $5.68 = 171.9% $1.31 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $18.71 229.4% upside ($18.71 - $5.68) / $5.68 = 229.4% $1.31 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $21.97 286.8% upside ($21.97 - $5.68) / $5.68 = 286.8% $1.31 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.31) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 4.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $5.50 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $18.71 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 5.6% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $5.50 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 300% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify