Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. logo INN - Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.00
LOW: $7.00
MEDIAN: $7.00
CONSENSUS: $7.00
UPSIDE: 2.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 63.9% below fair value
Current Price $6.86
Bear Case $15.69 128.7% upside ($15.69 - $6.86) / $6.86 = 128.7% $1.31 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $19.01 177.1% upside ($19.01 - $6.86) / $6.86 = 177.1% $1.31 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $22.32 225.4% upside ($22.32 - $6.86) / $6.86 = 225.4% $1.31 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.31) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $7.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.01 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 214% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify