Summit Hotel Properties, Inc. logo INN - Summit Hotel Properties, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $7.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $7.00
LOW: $7.00
MEDIAN: $7.00
CONSENSUS: $7.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 68.2% below fair value
Current Price $7.02
Bear Case $18.25 160.0% upside ($18.25 - $7.02) / $7.02 = 160.0% $1.31 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $22.11 214.9% upside ($22.11 - $7.02) / $7.02 = 214.9% $1.31 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $25.96 269.8% upside ($25.96 - $7.02) / $7.02 = 269.8% $1.31 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.31$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.31) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 5.3x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.31 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $22.11 per share. Dividend yield: 4.6%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $7.00
Analyst Range $7.00 – $7.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 216%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (73% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $7.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 216% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify