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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 228.4% above fair value
Current Price $10.34
Bear Case $2.52 75.6% downside ($2.52 - $10.34) / $10.34 = -75.6% $0.21 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $3.15 69.5% downside ($3.15 - $10.34) / $10.34 = -69.5% $0.21 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $3.78 63.5% downside ($3.78 - $10.34) / $10.34 = -63.5% $0.21 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.21$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 49.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.21, the base-case value is $3.15 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples