Ingles Markets, Incorporated logo IMKTA - Ingles Markets, Incorporated

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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 31.9% below fair value
Current Price $90.75
Bear Case $111.00 22.3% upside ($111.00 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 22.3% $11.10 × 10x P/E
Fair Value $133.20 46.8% upside ($133.20 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 46.8% $11.10 × 12x P/E
Bull Case $155.40 71.2% upside ($155.40 - $90.75) / $90.75 = 71.2% $11.10 × 14x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

12.0x
11.1$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (12x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 12x P/E to adjusted EPS of $11.10, the base-case value is $133.20 per share.

Warnings

⚠ The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 152%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples